Brumbies

Biostatistician’s report on the Official Government Count of Brumbies

“This report is prepared in full by myself, Claire Galea, biostatistician. (24 May 2023)

I declare that I have no conflict of interest and have undertaken this report independently. I have been a statisticianfor over 25 years and have analysed all forms of data ranging from military to biological,educational and medical, specialising in teaching, lecturing and scrutinising complex timebased data and examining trends. I have published over 50 peer reviewed papers, includingmy Masters dissertation, which was based on trends over time, as are the documents that Ihave reported on in my submission to this inquiry. All key findings, summaries andrecommendations are focussed on the mathematical and statistical aspects of the reports
listed below

Summary of Analysis
There are concerning flaws in methodology and statistical modelling of the populationestimates of wild horses in the Kosciuszko.
Based on this analysis it is impossible to have any confidence in the population estimates provided.


Key findings

  1. The survey methodology contains significant flaws that put in question the counting of wild horses.
  2. Insufficient numbers of wild horses were seen to apply statistical modelling
    techniques to estimate populations.
    For example: Values from surveys conducted in 2014 and 2019 were combined together asinsufficient numbers were seen and population estimates done from this one single value which means that population estimates over time are fundamentally flawed.
    Recommendation
    Immediate moratorium on the killing of all wild horses in the Kosciuszko National Park and an independent investigation into all population trends and subsequent control needs to be urgently undertaken.”

THE OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT COUNT is flawed, and produced a mind boggling range of 12,797 to 21,760 brumbies, a difference of nearly 9,000 horses, a margin of error that has been ridiculed.

A Government mandate stipulates that 3,000 horses may remain in Retention Zones in the Park, chosen because of the Heritage value and bloodlines of Brumbies living in those zones.

SO HOW DO WE KNOW WHEN WE REACH 3,000 IF NATIONAL PARKS AND WILDLIFE SERVICES CONTINUE THEIR BARBARIC SHOOTING UNLESS AN URGENT COUNT OF RETENTION ZONES IS UNDERTAKEN IMMEDIATELY

Photo by “Kiki” magnificent Stallion in KNP